As Coalition battles, government says it’s on track for climate cuts
By Caitlin Fitzsimmons
Australia is on track to meet its 2030 commitment under the United Nations climate treaty after national greenhouse emissions fell 1.4 per cent in the year to March 2025, the federal government says, but scientists warn the cuts need to be far deeper to avert catastrophic global warming.
The government’s quarterly release of emission figures comes as the latest Resolve Political Monitor survey showed strong support for a more ambitious 2035 target to be taken to the next climate conference in Brazil later this year, and the Coalition split over climate policy will be on full display in parliament this week.
Australia’s renewable energy transition is the biggest driver of greenhouse emissions cuts.Credit: Wolter Peeters
Under the UN Paris Agreement, Australia is committed to reducing national greenhouse emissions by 43 per cent by 2030, and the Quarterly Update of Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory released on Monday shows cuts of 28 per cent so far.
The figures by the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water show Australia produced emissions equivalent to 440.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in the year to March 2025. This was 6.5 million tonnes less than the previous year, mostly because of renewable energy generation, industrial decarbonisation under the Safeguard Mechanism, and a decline in demand for household gas.
Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen said the government’s climate and energy policies were working to drive down emissions across the economy, and the surge in installation of home batteries since its subsidy program began on July 1 would have additional impact.
“We are on track to achieve our emissions reduction goals if we stay the course and continue to lift our efforts,” Bowen said in a statement.
Across Australia’s two main grids, renewable energy has now reached over 40 per cent of all energy produced in the past financial year.
Emissions fell in every sector except transport, which continued its post-pandemic rise as use of road diesel and domestic aviation fuel reached record levels. The government expects the new vehicle efficiency rules to reduce transport emissions.
The figures show carbon dioxide emissions are about 64 per cent of total emissions in Australia, and have declined 38 per cent since June 2005, mainly because of renewable energy and using land as a carbon sink. Methane emissions – which come from agriculture, coal mining and landfill – are about 29 per cent of Australia’s total greenhouse output. They have declined 16 per cent in the past 20 years.
The Climate Change Authority will imminently recommend a revised 2035 target, which is expected to be in the 65-75 per cent range, after undertaking a thorough sector-by-sector review of where cuts could be made. Of the 1800 voters surveyed by Resolve, 44 per cent supported – and only 18 per cent opposed – this goal.
The Coalition is split over climate policy and Labor has taken the rare decision to allow parliament to debate a private member’s bill put forward by former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce that would force Australia to abandon its commitment to net zero emissions by 2050.
However, a private member’s bill put forward by independent MP Zali Steggall to improve the transparency and frequency of climate risk reporting and mandate the development of fully funded adaptation plans, is unlikely to be debated.
Climateworks Centre Australia policy lead Anna Malos endorsed the government’s claim to be on track for 2030, but called for the 2035 target to be far more ambitious.
“With decisive, increased action across all sectors, there are many more opportunities to cut emissions well beyond current expectations,” Malos said. “Now is the time to set the country up for success”.
Modelling by Climateworks and CSIRO suggests Australia could reduce emissions by 85 per cent by 2035, based on technology adoption. If aiming to keep warming below 1.5 degrees, Australia would also need to aim for net zero before 2040, more than a decade sooner than its current commitment.
The Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming “well below 2 degrees” and to limit it to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, but current national pledges mean the world is currently heading for 2.6-3.1 degrees of warming by 2100.
Dan Tehan, the opposition spokesman for energy and emissions reduction, pointed out that the quarterly report stated that annual national emissions had remained relatively flat in recent years.
“Labor’s 2030 targets won’t be met,” he said.
Professor Frank Jotzo, director of the Centre for Climate and Energy Policy at the Australian National University, said overall emissions levels had been flatlining over the past three years.
“Achieving the 43 per cent emissions target by 2030 will require a significant change in pace,” Jotzo said.
“The bigger question is the 2035 target, which will soon need to be decided and communicated to the UN, will be much stronger than 2030 … and this will require very significant upscaling of the policy effort.”
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