By Paul Cully
The Wallabies’ superb win at Ellis Park last weekend will live long in the memory, and the resilience in the side offers hope they can do the unthinkable and go back-to-back in Cape Town.
The selection of Corey Toole in the No.11 shows that the Wallabies aren’t afraid of the Springboks.
Andrew Kellaway would have been the safer option, but having already exploited the Springboks’ vulnerability to speed on the edge, Joe Schmidt has doubled down.
Schmidt is consigning Springboks coach Rassie Erasmus to an unfamiliar role - that of the coach who is playing catch-up and potentially second-guessing himself.
Earlier in the week, Erasmus predicted the Wallabies would go to a 6-2 split, presumably thinking that Schmidt would act to counter a perceived Springboks strength.
Instead, Schmidt has gone the other way, denying Erasmus what he wanted. But while these chess moves between two of the sport’s great thinkers are great fun in the buildup to the Test, the outcome will be decided by the nuts and bolts.
Corey Toole will start for the Wallabies against South Africa.Credit: Getty Images
In short, the Wallabies have to be infinitely better under the high ball against the Springboks. The back-to-back world champions were superb in the air for the first 20 minutes in Johannesburg, winning back a succession of box kicks.
A change in refereeing interpretations has made it so much harder for defensive teams to block kick-chasers, and the Springboks have been big winners due to the excellence of their kick-chase capacity and skills under the high ball.
But the Wallabies’ chances of dealing with the barrage havebeen helped by the Springboks’ decision to bench world-class second-rower Eben Etzebeth.
Somewhat bizarrely, the 203-centimetre enforcer is one of the better kick-chasers in world rugby. It was Etzebeth who gathered Tom Wright’s knock-on from the first box kick last week, and minutes later, he regathered another box kick directly.
It is one of his overlooked qualities, and the quality of the Springboks’ chase will be poorer without him. The Wallabies will be glad to see Etzebeth on the bench full stop.
He was outstanding on both sides of the ball last week, twice engaging three defenders on the gain line before getting an offload away and also making 16 tackles from 17 attempts.
In addition, Etzebeth is also profiting from the new-ish interpretation that prevents teams in possession from setting up blockers at the side of the ruck to protect their halfback when he is clearing the ball.
As a result, Etzebeth is a constant charge-down threat due to his anticipation, acceleration, and sheer wingspan. Nic White, who had to change the trajectory of one of his clearances last week under Etzebeth’s pressure, will be glad he doesn’t have to put up with him in Cape Town.
Eben Etzebeth crunches James O’Connor last weekend.Credit: AP
Presumably, the Springboks feel that benching Etzebeth will restore their Bomb Squad to full force, a tacit recognition that it is not what it was a few years ago.
It is remarkable to think that not so long ago, the Springboks had the luxury of introducing Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx and Vincent Koch or Trevor Nyakane from the bench. But injuries, a retirement and Father Time have taken their toll.
Of course, the Wallabies will still be heavy underdogs in Cape Town. Writing off the Springboks is for fools, and we won’t be going down that path here.
The returns of Handre Pollard and Damian de Allende, in particular, boosts them significantly, and the Wallabies scrum is likely in for a brutal examination from the outset.
But the burden of expectation on the hosts will suit the Wallabies, who have already surprised many by winning one of their Tests in South Africa, something that was beyond the All Blacks last year.
With a bonus-point win already in the bag - and Erasmus was visibly frustrated by the Wallabies’ ability to deny the Springboks a losing bonus point - the Wallabies have something of a free shot in Cape Town.
Perhaps that little bit of wriggle room has facilitated the selection of Toole, although the Brumbies speedster has earned the opportunity from continual improvement over the past two years.
He was gutted to have the ball knocked from his hands in the last act of the Brumbies’ crucial home loss to the Crusaders in the last round of Super Rugby, yet paradoxically, that moment showed his quality.
Noah Lolesio had flung a looping wide ball to Toole more in hope than expectation, but from a standing start, Toole beat four Crusaders defenders - including James O’Connor - before Scott Barrett dispossessed him in the tackle.
Win, lose or draw in Cape Town, a bit of that Toole speed and footwork would give the Wallabies another weapon for the rest of the year.
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