Trump says he has ‘solved’ seven conflicts. Here’s what to know about them

The ethnic Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave long administered by Armenia within the internationally recognised borders of Azerbaijan, was forced to flee en masse in September 2023 as Azerbaijani forces took the territory by force.

After four decades of conflict, the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a deal that included a peace framework meant to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute at the White House this month.

“It’s a long time, 35 years, they fought, and now they’re friends, and they’re going to be friends for a long time,” Trump said to the cameras at the signing ceremony.

Under the agreement, the US gained exclusive rights to develop a transit corridor linking Azerbaijan with the contested territory of Nakhchivan, an energy-rich enclave sandwiched between Armenia, Iran and Turkey. The corridor, dubbed the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), could shift the regional security balance, giving the US a foothold between Iran and Russia and offering Turkey new trade access to Asia.

What the leaders signed on August 8 was largely an economic partnership, not a full-on peace deal.

Khazar Ibrahim, the Azerbaijan ambassador to the US, said the Trump deal was not a formal peace agreement and that Azerbaijan had not signed one because Armenia’s Constitution still referred to territory claimed by Azerbaijan as Armenian.

“We have been very clear, the Armenia Constitution still has territorial claims against us, so we don’t want to have a stillborn document,” Ibrahim said. Until Armenia’s Constitution was changed, peace would not be possible, he said.

But Ibrahim said he believed Trump’s efforts would result in more peaceful relations with Armenia.

“It’s essential to have a strong political will from a strong global leader. That is what I believe was lacking, and that is what I believe now exists,” he said.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has expressed concerns over the US-brokered deal, describing the prospect of American companies near Iran’s northern border as worrying in an interview with state television before his trip to Armenia this week.

Democratic Republic of Congo-Rwanda

Leaders from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda gathered in the Oval Office on June 27 to sign a US-brokered deal that aimed to temper a decades-long conflict that has left millions dead.

The agreement introduced a new security co-ordination mechanism and inked state commitments to stop arming local groups and to facilitate the return of various refugee populations, many displaced since the 1994 Rwandan genocide.

While Trump celebrated “a glorious triumph for the cause of peace”, some experts and diplomats have been more circumspect, noting that one of the main parties in the conflict – the M23 rebel group – was not party to the US deal and continues to operate.

“This hasn’t solved the problem,” said Michelle Gavin, a former US ambassador to Botswana and National Security Council member during the Obama administration. Armed forces had yet to withdraw from eastern Congo following the deal, she said.

Like the agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the deal promises the expansion of “significant” investments facilitated by the US government and private groups, which probably hope to tap into the region’s mineral reserves, valued at $US24 trillion ($37 trillion) by the US Commerce Department.

“It is a mineral deal first, an opportunity for peace second,” Human Rights Watch Central Africa director Lewis Mudge wrote in a statement.

“Making the deal work will depend on continued monitoring by the US government and support from Congress.”

Serbia-Kosovo

Serbia and Kosovo have not been engaged in active conflict since the late 1990s, but the Trump administration said it prevented new violence.

Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani backed Trump’s claim, saying that Serbia had planned to attack Kosovo in May before Trump intervened.

“What I can say at this point is that there were renewed efforts by Serbia to endanger peace,” said Osmani, who credited Trump with preventing the outbreak of war but said she couldn’t reveal additional information because the specifics were “classified”.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has denied any plans for an attack.

Egypt-Ethiopia

The White House says it has resolved tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia over a long-standing dam dispute, but in this case there is no apparent agreement.

Egypt and Ethiopia have been at odds for years over water rights and the massive Grand Ethiopian Renaissance hydroelectric dam in Ethiopia on the Blue Nile, a major Nile tributary upriver from Egypt. Cairo fears the dam, the construction of which began 14 years ago, could rob Egypt of its share of Nile waters.

Trump attempted to mediate the dispute during his first term, but negotiations stalled. It’s unclear to what extent talks have restarted under Trump’s second term, but tensions between the two countries appear to have eased, which analysts say is due in part to heavy rainfall. Egypt is primarily concerned with how Ethiopia will operate the dam during times of drought.

The embassies of Egypt and Ethiopia in Washington did not respond immediately to queries about the status of the dispute or Trump’s role in mediating it.

India-Pakistan

After 10 days of conflict between two nuclear-armed powers, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire on May 10. Trump said he headed off the escalating tit-for-tat.

Pakistan praised Trump as a peacemaker. But India denied a US role, a stance that appears to have contributed to the fading friendship between Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

In a tense call on June 17 after Trump left a world leaders’ summit early and cancelled his in-person meeting with Modi, the Indian leader told Trump that India “does not, and will never, accept mediation”, according to an Indian readout.

Trump took offence at being denied credit and imposed a punishing 50 per cent tariff on India in August, amid a trade dispute in part over India’s Russian oil imports.

Thailand-Cambodia

On July 24, Thailand launched airstrikes on Cambodia, escalating a skirmish between the two countries, which share a disputed 800-kilometre border and a decades-old enmity. As Cambodia retaliated with artillery and the casualty count rose, tens of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border fled.

Two days later, Trump stepped in. “We happen to be, by coincidence, currently dealing on Trade with both Countries, but do not want to make any Deal, with either Country, if they are fighting – And I have told them so!” Trump posted on Truth Social.

The threat appeared to work. On July 28, Trump said a ceasefire had been reached and instructed his trade teams to restart negotiations. “I have now ended many Wars in just six months – I am proud to be the President of PEACE!” he posted.

Israel-Iran

After 12 days of fighting between Iran and Israel in June that began with an Israeli attack on Iran – a conflict that included US strikes on sites key to Iran’s nuclear program – the Trump administration pushed for a ceasefire, which has held.

“We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f--- they’re doing,” Trump told reporters when attacks launched by both sides threatened the ceasefire in its infancy.

In the run-up to the conflict, Trump had been pushing for a renewed nuclear deal with Iran.

The Washington Post

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