Opinion
Forecasting wild weather just got more difficult, thanks to Donald Trump
Matt Kean
Climate Change Authority ChairWhen Cyclone Alfred barrelled towards the Queensland coast in early March, authorities based their warnings partly on data from a powerful US satellite capable of peering through clouds.
Australia and other nations have long relied on these polar-orbiting microwave devices run by the US Defence Meteorological Satellite Program. They give us vital insights about wind-speeds over oceans and other data that improve weather forecasts – and they have few substitutes.
US satellite data has aided weather forecasting and warning systems for events such as Cyclone Alfred. Credit: Nick Moir
Access to that public good science and a vast array of other weather and climate data is under its own cloud after deep and apparently random cuts by the Trump administration.
Remarkably, even the US National Weather Service wasn’t sure until just days before the Atlantic hurricane season began ramping up whether it would retain access to such satellites.
It’s understandable that governments and the media have focused on every assault on trade since the second Trump administration took office in January. But changes directed at America’s own scientific agencies and their global partnerships have largely flown under the radar.
At least seven European nations are reviewing their reliance on US marine, climate and weather services, Reuters reported on Friday. We can’t afford to be timid in our response either.
The stakes could hardly be higher. Australia’s main weather and climate models rely on inputs from the US, so their accuracy would be undermined if data access ended without alternatives.
You don’t have to be a farmer, sailor or pilot to value a good forecast. If you want to know when a marine heatwave might trigger an algal bloom or how an earthquake might unleash tsunamis, you can also appreciate the visceral importance of globally connected early warning systems.
Globally connected early warning systems can alert us to risks such as an algal bloom, which has killed rays in SA.Credit: Getty Images
Among those systems at risk is the Argo float program, a swarm of drifting devices that measures the temperature and salinity of the top two kilometres of oceans every 10 days. The US funds more than half the $60 million array, including 380 of these floats in Australia’s own search and rescue domain.
The looming funding cuts may mean the US removes 900 floats a year. It may also stop paying the $2 million annual data transmission costs and sack the eight-person team in the US that processes the information for global use.
Short-term ocean forecasts, particularly in the tropics where US Argo floats predominate, would be rendered useless for most applications, should the cuts occur. A hint that national security may be compromised is the risk posed to the related Bluelink ocean prediction service, which won a Department of Defence Eureka Prize for outstanding science in safeguarding Australia in 2024.
Then there’s the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), among a slew of climate labs and co-operative institutes with 420 staff that the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been earmarked to close next year. As The Conversation noted in an article last week, Australia has relied on PMEL for early warnings to declare every El Nino and La Nina for the past 30 years.
Similarly, a vital component of Australia’s ACCESS (Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator) climate model is developed primarily at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Without GFDL, the pace of model progress would be halved, affecting a program that underpins all Australian climate projections used by industry and government for planning and climate risk.
The Climate Change Authority is monitoring the threats closely. Just last week, we published a report on the outlook for the Great Barrier Reef. Grim as it is – unless the world slashes carbon emissions – the work relied on data from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch, another service in doubt. Our Bureau of Meteorology tracks Coral Sea temperature changes, but not to NOAA’s standard.
The authority welcomes efforts by Australia’s science agencies, universities and government departments to assess where our most pressing vulnerabilities lie.
The US has put us on notice, even if our worst fears aren’t realised. For insurance, we must invest more in our domestic capabilities and forge new partnerships abroad, not least because the challenges – from carbon emissions cuts to climate adaptation – are going to intensify.
It’s worth recalling that collaboration on weather forecasting persisted through the Cold War because of the clear global good. The World Meteorological Organisation marked 75 years in March, as one example, and international teamwork will be a central theme of this year’s global climate change summit in Brazil.
In an era when climate change is driving ever wilder weather, we’re going to need more such co-operation – no matter the whims of the White House.
Matt Kean is chair of the Climate Change Authority. He previously served as NSW’s Liberal treasurer.
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