Opinion
It’s the question Albanese hates most, but the answer tells us much about him
James Massola
Chief Political CommentatorIf there is one question about Anthony Albanese asked by commentators, critics, his own MPs and members of the public more than any other, it is this: “Why isn’t he more ambitious, especially now that he has a big majority?”
This week, some of Australia’s most significant decision makers from business, unions and elsewhere have been in Canberra for a productivity summit designed to shake loose ideas to grow Australia’s national income and wealth, rather than just redistribute it.
Illustration by Simon LetchCredit:
A number of big ideas have been proposed and the summit appeared to agree to a pause on changes to the national construction code, while Health Minister Mark Butler announced some major changes to NDIS eligibility.
But it has all been a little underwhelming and has prompted another round of questions about the PM’s ambition.
There is probably no question the prime minister dislikes more.
A few years ago, in January 2021, I had dinner with Albanese at Canberra’s venerable Kingston Hotel and then interviewed him a couple of days later. Journalists and politicians of all political persuasions regularly dine together when parliament sits in Canberra to trade information.
During the interview, Albanese outlined the 18 seats Labor would target at the election in May 2022, a recent reshuffle, the party’s campaign slogan “On Your Side” and that major policies would come late in the term so that Labor was “kicking with the wind in the final quarter”.
Over a sober, steak dinner at the “Kingo”, the then-opposition leader also spoke about the pain of his split from ex-wife Carmel Tebbutt, the car crash that nearly killed him and the need to restore trust in politics.
At that time, in January 2021, Labor was either just ahead or just behind in the published opinion polls and Scott Morrison held a commanding lead as preferred prime minister, though public sentiment was beginning to turn against Morrison. The opposition leader sensed an opening, which was to be the man who restored trust in Australian politics.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers at the opening of the Economic Reform Roundtable at Parliament House on Tuesday.Credit: Dominic Lorrimer
Albanese’s views on ambition and trust in politics were shaped, in part, by 12 years of watching John Howard up close and then the 2010 caucus coup that tore down Kevin Rudd.
At the time, he warned the switch to Julia Gillard would destroy the careers of two potentially great Australian prime ministers and that Labor should be “fighting tories”, not each other. He was correct. In the decade that followed, Labor lost power and the Coalition cycled through three prime ministers before being booted out of office without having achieved much.
At the “Kingo” in 2021, Albanese spoke at length about how the prime ministerial merry-go-round had smashed Australians’ faith in politics and politicians (a trend replicated in democracies around the world) and how corrosive that was for democracy and social cohesion. If elected prime minister, he said, he would pursue economic and social reforms but not at the expense of rebuilding trust in Australian politics.
Later, during the 2022 election campaign, Albanese outlined a two-term strategy to try to restore the ALP as the “natural party of government”.
In office, Albanese has mostly stuck to his promise to rebuild trust – with two exceptions. First, holding the Voice to parliament referendum, which had been flagged before the election but which ultimately proved to be too much change too soon for most Australians. Second, his decision to change Scott Morrison’s stage three tax cuts. This was a broken promise and Albanese was roundly castigated when he announced the change.
The critics howled about a promise broken – Peter Dutton called for an early election – but they (including yours truly) were wrong. Albanese took the Australian people into his trust and explained the reasons for the decision. The fact that millions of extra Australians got a tax cut didn’t hurt, either.
The defeat of the Voice spooked Albanese, and although he carried the day on tax cut changes, these were difficult moments for the government. Though one change was successful and one was not, both contributed to Albanese’s already innate caution during the first term.
Proposals Labor was examining – such as winding back negative gearing tax breaks – were kicked into the long grass, despite Treasurer Jim Chalmers championing them. Albanese left the door open for just a few days on that proposal before slamming it shut. And while some economists argue that winding back negative gearing could reduce housing supply and exacerbate the problem, the public perception is that limiting the tax break would help solve the housing crisis. But by not acting on this policy, Albanese has reinforced public perceptions that he lacks ambition. When asked about this, the PM vehemently disagrees.
Regularly, in public and in private, he will run through a long list of reforms that run the gamut from climate and housing polices, industrial relations, student debt relief and more. Whether you agree with him or not, Albanese enjoys one of the largest majorities in Australian political history, so he must be doing something right.
Barring an act of God or caucus, Albanese is certain to lead Labor to the next election, and if this parliament runs full term, he will become the eighth longest-serving PM.
Three full three-year terms would leave him behind only Robert Menzies and Howard and ahead of Labor legend Bob Hawke. That is rare air. Albanese – the first prime minister to be re-elected since 2004 – is embedding himself in the political firmament as a left-wing John Howard.
The secret to Howard’s success was trust. Even those Australians who didn’t like him or vote for him trusted that he acted in what he thought was Australia’s best interests. Howard used that reservoir of trust to deliver the GST, and then broke that trust with Work Choices.
Albanese has not yet delivered anything like Howard’s signature achievement, though if the government can put the NDIS on a sustainable footing that will be a huge accomplishment.
It’s that lesson about trust (and not rushing policy as the Rudd government did) that Albanese took to heart in opposition and is seeking to replicate in office.
What isn’t clear yet is what Albanese will spend his political capital on. Until he decides, people will keep accusing him of lacking ambition.
James Massola is chief political commentator.