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Can the Wallabies beat South Africa again? Yes – if they do these five things
By Tom Decent
While last week’s historic win at Ellis Park was followed by Wallabies scarves and jerseys being pulled out from cupboards across the country, every Australian rugby fan is bracing for a Springboks response in Cape Town this weekend after a performance in Johannesburg labelled as “dogshit” by coach Rassie Erasmus.
History suggests the Wallabies face an even greater challenge on Saturday (kick-off 1:10am Sunday, AEST). The last time they recorded back-to-back wins over the Springboks was Brisbane (2021) and the Gold Coast (2022).
The Wallabies haven’t beaten the Springboks twice in South Africa in a calendar year since 1963. The last time Australia opened a Rugby Championship campaign with two straight wins was in 2015.
As for back-to-back away victories in the tournament? You have to go back to 2000 (Wellington and Durban), when John Eales was captain.
Here are five things the Wallabies must do if they are to win in Cape Town for the first time since Nick Farr-Jones’ side in 1992.
The Wallabies celebrate a remarkable victory at Ellis Park.Credit: AP
Win the aerial battle
Coach Joe Schmidt underlined the importance of the contest in the air this week.
“That aerial contest will be very competitive again,” Schmidt told reporters. “It’s something we didn’t win at the start of the [first] Test match.”
In Johannesburg, the Springboks retained five of their 11 contestable kicks, all from halfback Grant Williams.
Corey Toole will start for the Wallabies against South Africa.Credit: Getty Images
With 82-Test veteran Handrè Pollard returning at No.10 for his first start against Australia since 2022, expect more pressure on the Wallabies’ back three, including winger Corey Toole on debut.
Joseph Aukuso-Suaalii looms as Australia’s best weapon in the air – particularly at short kick-offs, where he can reclaim possession.
Start faster, start harder
If the Wallabies fall behind early by 20 points again, as they did last week, they will be punished. The Springboks won’t squander a head start twice.
According to stats guru Kate Lorimer, South Africa led the Rugby Championship last week in gain-line dominance: 58 per cent of their carries crossed the advantage line and 22 per cent were dominant.
The Springboks also racked up 205 post-contact metres — more than the Wallabies, All Blacks and Pumas combined. Off the back of a loss, they could be even more physical.
The good news? This week’s Test is at sea level, making it much easier for the Wallabies’ players to breathe than on the Highveld.
Prescribe a clinic from the Scrum Doctor
With James Slipper back in Australia nursing a concussion, Tom Robertson has been promoted to start at loose-head prop, with Angus Bell on the bench.
(Left) Wallabies prop Tom Robertson.Credit: Getty Images
Once nicknamed the “Scrum Doctor” while juggling rugby and his medical studies, Robertson must live up to the title against Springboks tighthead Thomas du Toit if Australia are to compete at scrum time.
Expect Bell to enter the fray early if things go awry. South Africa enjoyed a perfect scrum record in Johannesburg, and the Wallabies know they need at least parity.
Unleash Toole
Corey Toole is Australia’s fastest rugby player and needs to get the ball in parts of the field where he can be at his damaging best.
He scored 11 tries in Super Rugby this year and has 28 overall. Toole has also played at this venue before, in sevens in 2022, which should help him settle the nerves.
With a bit of fancy footwork and a license to roam, Toole is a pivotal figure if he can get enough ball. Max Jorgensen, fresh from a dazzling solo try last week, will also be a closely guarded man.
Be better with the boot
Australia’s goal-kicking could be better.
The Wallabies have lost plenty of Tests in the past decade due to their sub-par efforts off the tee.
Their 66.6 per cent success rate last week was the worst of any side in round one of the Rugby Championship. It didn’t matter in Johannesburg, but it could in Cape Town.
James O’Connor missed two conversions, one out wide in the 30th minute and another late when the game was already won. In tighter contests, those misses cost matches.
Australia kicked at 69 per cent (9 from 13) during the Lions series.
There are other non-negotiables, like putting pressure on South Africa at the lineout and breakdown. If Nick Frost and Fraser McReight can have the same impact in those key areas, the Wallabies will be cheering.
A second Australian victory — still improbable despite last week’s heroics — would be a priceless boost for the code with home fixtures against Argentina and New Zealand to come.