Albanese won 94 seats at the election. Now voters want to give him even more
By Shane Wright
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s honeymoon with voters after his election victory is showing no sign of ending as support for Labor climbs to its highest level in two years and voters believe the government is focused on the right issues.
But the Resolve Political Monitor shows the situation has not worsened for Liberal leader Sussan Ley. Voters have ranked her the most likeable of any MP, while her deputy, Ted O’Brien, is quickly proving to be an asset for the Coalition.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has reason to be happy with the latest Resolve Political Monitor, but so does Opposition Leader Sussan Ley.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
The poll of 1800 people, conducted exclusively for this masthead, showed support for Labor has climbed by 2 points over the past month to 37 per cent – the highest level since just before the Voice referendum in October 2023, and is 2.5 points up on what Labor secured at the May election.
The Coalition’s primary vote was steady at 29 per cent, while support for the Greens was also unchanged at 12 per cent. The higher primary vote for Labor came out of minor parties, apart from One Nation, which at 9 per cent is almost 3 points up on its federal election result.
On a two-party preferred basis, Labor has widened its lead over the Coalition to 59-41, its strongest result since April 2023 and a 4-point increase on May.
If the result were repeated nationally at an election, Labor would enjoy an increase on the record 94 seats it won at the federal election, taking Coalition-held electorates such as Longman in Queensland, La Trobe in Victoria and Forrest in Western Australia.
Resolve Strategic director Jim Reed said Labor was “sitting pretty” with its enlarged primary and two-party preferred vote, and while the Coalition had not gone any further backwards it was “not making any headway yet”.
But he said Albanese, despite the strong overall showing, was continuing to struggle on the personal front while Ley was doing relatively well.
“The fly in the ointment for Labor continues to be Albanese’s personal ratings, with his net performance rating slipping into the negative side of neutral,” he said.
“Conversely, Ley’s performance and net likeability is a rare ray of sunshine for the Coalition, who fail to lead on much else.”
Albanese’s net likeability level was plus 3 in the poll, down a point and within the margin of error from July. It is still a major improvement on his minus 16 recorded in February.
Ley’s net likeability also edged down a point to plus 10, but it is double that recorded for the Liberal Party.
Her deputy and shadow treasurer, O’Brien, increased his net likeability to plus 6 in the poll to be well in front of Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who is at plus 1.
Labor’s most popular member continues to be Foreign Minister Penny Wong at plus 5, just ahead of new Communications Minister Anika Wells, Resources Minister Madeleine King, Attorney-General Michelle Rowland and Health Minister Mark Butler, who are all at plus 4.
Despite her high likeability rating, Ley continues to lag Albanese in terms of preferred prime minister. Albanese was the preferred PM among 41 per cent of respondents compared to Ley’s 26 per cent, with both up a point since July.
Ley’s rating, while up over the month, is short of the 39 per cent recorded by former Liberal leader Peter Dutton in February.
But she is outperforming Dutton in net performance. Thirty-eight per cent of those surveyed described Ley’s performance as good while 29 per cent rated it as poor, giving her a net performance rating of plus 9. Dutton’s net performance rating just before the May election was minus 24.
Reed said Labor continued to outperform the Coalition on key issues, with last week’s cut in official interest rates by the Reserve Bank probably aiding the government.
“Living costs, health, housing, the economy, crime and immigration make up the electorate’s key priorities, and Labor hold modest leads on most of them. Outlook is still pretty good, and it’s likely the rate cut has something to do with that,” Reed said.
Outside of issues, the government is being rewarded for its political performance.
At the start of the year, voters had deeply marked down the government on its political management. It had a minus 12 rating on listening, being focused on the right issues and offering strong leadership, a minus 8 rating on competency and a minus 9 rating on its communication skills.
But Resolve shows that across all metrics voters have the government on positive ratings.
After being minus 3 in January, it is now plus 19 for having a united team behind its leader. It is plus 15 on communication and strong leadership, plus 12 on listening or being focused on the right issues and being competent and plus 10 on being honest and trustworthy.
A key issue appears to be the improvement in voters’ personal finances. A lift in real wage growth, which hit a five-year high last week, and the third cut to official interest rates this year, have contributed to the improvement.
The Resolve index of personal finances improved a point in August to be up 15 per cent since the start of the year, and it is now at its highest level since the start of 2022. At that point, inflation was just starting to accelerate, and the Reserve Bank had official interest rates at 0.1 per cent.
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